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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

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The report singled out several marketing tactics which had been flagged as particuarly concerning.

The first was direct marketing (emails, texts, push notifications). Citing randomised studies, the committee noted that limiting direct marketing resulted in reduced betting and fewer short-term harms. 

Referencing an Australian study on direct marketing and its link to gambling harms, Dr Philip Newall, senior lecturer at the University of Bristol noted that “causality was established by getting a random subset of participants to opt-out of receiving direct marketing offers”.

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Spotlight, the group behind the media outlet Racing Post, hired Adam Gill as its new CTO in June amid continued investment in expanding the company’s product offering.

Gill, who joined from the market research company Savanta, is leading Spotlight’s technology and engineering across the group with a focus on engaging new audiences.

“As Racing Post enters its 40th year, there is a real opportunity to use technology to engage new audiences, deepen the value we deliver to operators and make AI a practical capability across the business,” Gill commented.