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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
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The press release also warned operators against complying with any payment requests from departments that aren’t legally authorised to do so.
It called for any such acts to be reported immediately to the Ministry of Finance and the Directorate General of Administrative, Judicial, State Property and Equity Revenues (DGRAD).
The DGRAD has been tasked with identifying and securing the cancellation of any irregularly issued payment notices.
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On Thursday, the UK Gambling Commission reported that two senior figures formerly associated with the Conservative Party had pleaded guilty to offences linked to betting on the 2024 General Election date.
Anthony Lee, who served as the Conservative Party’s director of campaigning, pleaded guilty to two counts of cheating under sections 42(1)(a) and 42(1)(b) of the Gambling Act 2005.
Meanwhile, Laura Lee (formerly Saunders), his wife and former head of international for the party, who also stood as the Conservative candidate in Bristol North-West at the 2024 election, pleaded guilty to one offence under section 42(1)(a).
