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Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.

The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

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Japan’s attempt to reap the economic benefits of casino gaming while keeping gambling socially contained is comparable to Asia’s dominant casino hubs Singapore and Macau.

Singapore has also imposed a highly controlled casino model, with casinos embedded within enormous integrated resorts and accompanied by entry controls and social safeguards. But by incorporating other forms of entertainment into their resorts, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa have proved hugely successful businesses that blend casino gaming with complementing luxury retail, hotels and entertainment.

Genting Singapore’s flagship Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) offers a smorgasbord of non-gaming entertainments, including Universal Studios Singapore. “These different businesses are planned and operated as one connected destination for leisure visitors, families, business travellers and event delegates, with the aim to widen the destination’s appeal, encourage longer stays and support spending across a broader tourism ecosystem,” a Genting Singapore spokesperson tells iGB.

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.