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One interesting nugget surrounds weekend figures at Kalshi, where volume on Sunday only surpassed prior daily activity by $34 million, BofA data shows. Typically, Sunday volume for the quarter dwarfs that of College Football Saturdays due to the voracious demand for NFL offerings. BofA analyst Shaun Kelley attributes the irregularity to the possibility that Kalshi is “over indexing” on college sports.

Kelley also cited improvements at Robinhood as a possible factor for the regression at Kalshi. Just before the NFL season, Robinhood took a minority stake in Crypto.com and struck a deal to begin routing NFL contracts to OG.com, the site’s regulated prediction market platform.

A 40% weekly increase at Crypto.com combined with the attrition at Kalshi may reflect the enormity of the Robinhood deal, according to Kelley.

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A contract purchased on Kalshi cannot simply be transferred and sold on Polymarket, even where the two markets appear to cover the same outcome. Each exchange may also define and resolve its contracts differently, creating an additional risk for firms trading across venues.

Liquidity can consequently become self-reinforcing. Market makers gravitate towards platforms offering dependable technology and substantial order flow, while their participation improves pricing and execution for consumers.

Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.