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Kalshi has imposed strict protocols for customer sign-up, which includes proof of US residency, along with a US tax identification number. The operator also requires traders to complete a robust know-your-customer check before trading on its site.
Per a nine-page member agreement issued by Kalshi in June, users are required to acknowledge that they are prohibited from trading on event contracts if domiciled in roughly three dozen countries. Australia, by way of the ASIC ban, received inclusion on the list. Under the agreement, Kalshi reserves the right to deny users access to its platform in the restricted jurisdictions.
In a statement released in August, ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland wrote that users who opt to engage with overseas operators may miss out on “protections” afforded to them on Australian soil. Another regulator, the Australian Communications and Media Authority, banned Polymarket from operating nationwide in 2025. According to the agency, Polymarket violated the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 by accepting in-play betting on sports events.
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“What is striking here is the level of activity that apparently failed to trigger effective intervention,” Williams says. “These were obvious indicators requiring further scrutiny, and it is difficult to understand why they did not result in more effective intervention.”
He adds that the recurring weakness is often not an absence of policies but a failure to ensure “technology, algorithms and operational processes actually work in practice”. Some of the QuinnBet issues followed a platform migration, underlining the need to retest controls whenever systems change.
As QuinnBet is also licensed in Gibraltar, Williams expects its regulator to consider the UK’s findings under the jurisdiction’s strengthened Gambling Act 2025. That would not necessarily require a second sanction, but Gibraltar must satisfy itself that any underlying weaknesses have been addressed, he says.
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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
