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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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The decision follows a long-running battle over the multimillion-dollar solar project, which the Upper Sioux Community began developing in 2024 to curb electricity costs and advance its clean-energy goals.
In November 2024, Minnesota Valley issued the tribe a cease-and-desist order and threatened to disconnect Prairie’s Edge if the system was activated. The tribe countered that the utility’s generation restrictions did not apply because the system was designed solely to power its own property and would not feed electricity back onto the grid.
The array, which includes an 800-kilowatt battery storage system, is expected to cover about 30% of the casino’s electricity needs. Prairie’s Edge is the Upper Sioux Community’s principal economic engine, helping fund housing, healthcare, education, and public safety.
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“Are we remaining passive while society drowns in debt? Are we remaining passive while society is driven to madness – because this is an illness? People lose their minds; they contemplate suicide or abandoning their homes. So, we are going to take serious action.”
During the livestream, the president stated that he had spoken with a woman who said her 26-year-old son had taken his own life because of online betting. He also mentioned hearing from a bettor who had racked up BRL2 million ($388,410) in debt in just three months of wagering.
Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.
